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Is the Tesla Model 3 Likely to Be the Most Important Car of this Decade?

  • Yes

    Votes: 6 40.0%
  • No

    Votes: 9 60.0%

  • Total voters
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Discussion Starter #281
I don't know, if you are missing something, but you seem to have a short memory. It's great, that Tesla finally seems to have succeeded.
They have had a market capitalization around $60B for over a year now. Something that Mercedes and BMW can't reach/maintain after being in business for a century+. There is nothing "suddenly" about Tesla's financial (market value) success.


I just don't think, they are a stellar example of, how you should run a company.
So which new/startup Western company has managed to reach greater success than Tesla in the last 50 years? Hint: there isn't any. No other company came close. The closest was DeLorean which imploded in spectacular fashion after producing less than 10,000 cars total. Something that Tesla now produces in about 8 days.
 

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Looks flipping good to me:

https://electrek.co/2018/12/14/vw-electric-hatchback-spotted-testing/

Even at £/$/€30k this would devastate not just Tesla but also Hyundai-Kia.

As we've said, don't poke the bear. That's what the US and UK did with Dieselgate.

JLR, GM etc stood half a chance with the diesel/ICE era, getting crumbs from the VAG juggernaut table, but EV is black and white, go/no-go.

Joe Public will just see a car that does 300 miles, is roomy, safe, well-made, and costs about a Golf.

Sticking a leaper or a green oval on it, and paying Jamie Oliver a million quid to drive the 2-3 times the price JLR equivalent won't work, when it did with Posh and Becks with the Evoque and the RRSport almost a decade ago.
 

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Looks flipping good to me:

https://electrek.co/2018/12/14/vw-electric-hatchback-spotted-testing/

Even at £/$/€30k this would devastate not just Tesla but also Hyundai-Kia.

As we've said, don't poke the bear. That's what the US and UK did with Dieselgate.

JLR, GM etc stood half a chance with the diesel/ICE era, getting crumbs from the VAG juggernaut table, but EV is black and white, go/no-go.

Joe Public will just see a car that does 300 miles, is roomy, safe, well-made, and costs about a Golf.

Sticking a leaper or a green oval on it, and paying Jamie Oliver a million quid to drive the 2-3 times the price JLR equivalent won't work, when it did with Posh and Becks with the Evoque and the RRSport almost a decade ago.
Just to show the power of VAG: Here in Denmark, cars are very expensive due to high taxes. The very small and cheap so called microcars are very popular. Cars like Citroën C1/Peugeot 108/Toyota Aygo and several small Korean cars are selling very well. Then VW released the small Up!, which could compete with those microcars on price, size and so on. It completely stole the market (well almost), and literally doubled the sale of VW cars in Denmark. And they were competing with Peugeot for the first place already, so it's not that VW was not selling a lot of cars before that. The reason is, that VW has a very good image of being fine, reliable cars with the famous German quality and technology. And now you could suddenly get it for exactly the same price as a Korean or French car. And it was comparable in any way regarding size, engine, equipment level and so on. So why buy from a lesser known brand or a brand known for lesser quality? It is very possible, that VW can do something similar with the EV's.
 

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And this is the VW that will certainly if the $30,000 price point is maintained sort the winners from the losers.
So many loyal VW fans and a trusted distribution platform in the U.K. will certainly cause Tesla and Hyundai to up their game.

DFFC79-EE-8-FE4-403-B-9627-042-B9-A39-A995.jpg
 

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Just to show the power of VAG: Here in Denmark, cars are very expensive due to high taxes. The very small and cheap so called microcars are very popular. Cars like Citroën C1/Peugeot 108/Toyota Aygo and several small Korean cars are selling very well. Then VW released the small Up!, which could compete with those microcars on price, size and so on. It completely stole the market (well almost), and literally doubled the sale of VW cars in Denmark. And they were competing with Peugeot for the first place already, so it's not that VW was not selling a lot of cars before that. The reason is, that VW has a very good image of being fine, reliable cars with the famous German quality and technology. And now you could suddenly get it for exactly the same price as a Korean or French car. And it was comparable in any way regarding size, engine, equipment level and so on. So why buy from a lesser known brand or a brand known for lesser quality? It is very possible, that VW can do something similar with the EV's.
I wouldn't compare the ID with Up!. Despite the sales success Up! is a built to price car that really shouldn't have a VW badge on the front, much like the terrible recent T-Cross. ID is something completely different and has been designed to be a proper VW, something that starts with Golf in the current range. ID also has a whole suite of connectivity and personalisation with it that VW has been developing for years and is finally ready for release alongside ID & MK8. This is amuch more than a car launch it is VW's attempt to create a whole amazon/apple/microsoft type ecosystem around it's product to drive loyalty and associated sales.
 

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Now, to real matters. The 70 years young 'legacy maker' Porsche is doing its usual - wiping the floor with anything it turns its attention to - sports cars, SUVs, sports saloons, hi-performance hybrids, Le Mans winners... and now proper, perfromance, luxury EVs:

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/porsche-taycan-tesla-orders/

Not everyone's daft, a dupe for the media's messages, like Tesla being the future, an Ipad on wheels, the disruptor, the auto industry's Apple, Musk a genus/messiah.

That garbage only works with geeks with a mental development age around ten, who adore the fact a Tesla has Space Invaders.

Normal people recognise Porsche's true excellence, proven time and time again, not faked by media propaganda.

Each time Porsche enters a sector, it wipes the floor, with only Merc and BMW competing. Not even the similarly propagandized to Tesla by the UK media especially McLaren, can hold a candle, as shown by the 'hyper cars', P1 and 720S, having their butts kicked by the 918 and GT2 RS in the real world.

Porsche's Taycan, the Audi variants, e-tron GT, and others not revealed yet, will murder the Model S, and its supposed all-new replacement, due when?

Tesla is a bit like Land Rover, which the British were told was a world beater for years, but actually was protected within basically the old empire from competition, similar to Tesla's appeal to Silicon Valley/Bay area nerds and IT geeks.

Land Rover fell over the moment it met any serious opposition, from the Japanese, and its inadequacy was exposed. It only survived through marketing, in the form of the Range Rover, which again for a while had no opposition, a bit like the Model S after the Roadster.

Once both meet real, almost decades ahead competition, they fall over, as both are 99% PR and media promotion, to the feeble minded, fad followers.

Hyundai's relentless work ethic will destroy Tesla's chance of producing a mass-market priced car, not getting within $15k, whereas Porsche's engineering/tech excellence will take the high end away, once customers experience what a real engineered EV can do.

Musk might be a looney tune, but he knows this, or has enough top MBAs/MIT grads advising him of this, and so has raced to get as rich as possible, from US taxpayers, before the window closes.
What is your view on Dyson, he is clearly building an electric car given the amount of talent he is swooping up in malmsbury. Will an innovative high end dyson branded car sell?
 

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Discussion Starter #287
Let's see.

VW Cheap EV. To be produced on a factory that is said to reach a maximum capacity of 100,000 EV's per year at some point NEXT decade.

Tesla is producing at a rate of 400,000 vehicles/year. So clearly that is not a threat to Tesla.

Also, some people seems to have reading comprehension problems. The VW cheap EV will have versions costing "about the same as a Golf" which is ˜$30K and up, and some (not necessarily) the same version with a range of 550 KM WLTP.

Tesla's Model 3 also has paper version starting at ˜$35K and real versions starting at ˜$45K and ranges in excess of 550KM WLTP.

So, please tell me how this VW "future" car adds anything to Tesla's present cars.

And then as it launches....BOOM....Tesla launches the Model Y and brings in Gigafactory 3 capacity on line in China.




Again - Tesla is completely outclassing the industry.
 

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Let's see.

VW Cheap EV. To be produced on a factory that is said to reach a maximum capacity of 100,000 EV's per year at some point NEXT decade.

Tesla is producing at a rate of 400,000 vehicles/year. So clearly that is not a threat to Tesla.

Also, some people seems to have reading comprehension problems. The VW cheap EV will have versions costing "about the same as a Golf" which is ˜$30K and up, and some (not necessarily) the same version with a range of 550 KM WLTP.

Tesla's Model 3 also has paper version starting at ˜$35K and real versions starting at ˜$45K and ranges in excess of 550KM WLTP.

So, please tell me how this VW "future" car adds anything to Tesla's present cars.

And then as it launches....BOOM....Tesla launches the Model Y and brings in Gigafactory 3 capacity on line in China.




Again - Tesla is completely outclassing the industry.
No idea where your numbers come from but VW has said that first year production of ID will be Tiguan numbers for the UK, can't see Tesla bringing over that many in 2020.
 

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Discussion Starter #289
No idea where your numbers come from but VW has said that first year production of ID will be Tiguan numbers for the UK, can't see Tesla bringing over that many in 2020.
huh!!! The numbers came straight from the quoted electrek article:

"As we reported earlier this year,
VW is planning a capacity of 100,000 electric cars per year at its Zwickau plant, its first plant to go electric and to produce the company’s new MED-based electric vehicles."

Tesla is already at 4x that production rate TODAY.




And that is just production. Are you sure VW's dealers will be willing to sell a vehicle that requires an inordinate amount of prep time (charging, etc) and requires nearly no maintenance (no oil changes, no frequent brake changes, no transmission work, no exhaust, no timing chains, etc)?


 

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huh!!! The numbers came straight from the quoted electrek article:

"As we reported earlier this year,
VW is planning a capacity of 100,000 electric cars per year at its Zwickau plant, its first plant to go electric and to produce the company’s new MED-based electric vehicles."

Tesla is already at 4x that production rate TODAY.




And that is just production. Are you sure VW's dealers will be willing to sell a vehicle that requires an inordinate amount of prep time (charging, etc) and requires nearly no maintenance (no oil changes, no frequent brake changes, no transmission work, no exhaust, no timing chains, etc)?


Yes very sure, ID is the brand completely changing direction from all of that. ID will also go into production at other plants and will be joined by a whole host of ID vehicles, the ID branding is based on VW focussing on the customer and a culmination of their IT projects carnet, My Volkswagen and dealers Polk systems, all these will amalgamate into ID and be single sign on with much greater functionality than today. They have spent billions over the last 3 years getting this to market.

I can assure you my info is more reliable than a internet hack article.
 

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What is your view on Dyson, he is clearly building an electric car given the amount of talent he is swooping up in malmsbury. Will an innovative high end dyson branded car sell?
I saw him in an interview on TV, by 'Baldrick', Tony Robinson, doing one of his walks across England, where Dyson said to Robinson, 'Look out there. That's the first aircraft in the world to have a carbon fibre wing. Fifty years ago. British'.

Except... , Dyson was wrong, or lying, with the aircraft in question, outside his glass office in Malmesbury, the Harrier, being the aircraft that was developed by the Yanks, for the Marines, in the late 80s, not the original British Harrier of the 60s, to which Dyson was referring.

He's a showman/conman. A poor man's/British Musk.
 

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Discussion Starter #293
Yes very sure, ID is the brand completely changing direction from all of that. ID will also go into production at other plants and will be joined by a whole host of ID vehicles, the ID branding is based on VW focussing on the customer and a culmination of their IT projects carnet, My Volkswagen and dealers Polk systems, all these will amalgamate into ID and be single sign on with much greater functionality than today. They have spent billions over the last 3 years getting this to market.

I can assure you my info is more reliable than a internet hack article.
Problem is you have a lot of "will be", "will do", "will become" in your response.

Are you saying that the company that could only compete on efficiency by criminal fraud, all of a sudden will find the perfect formula to avoid disruption of its business by nimble companies like Tesla? And that the dealers will happily go along with all of it? How likely is that to happen?

Don't kid yourself. VW is in scrambling, reactive mode. They are not setting the agenda.
 

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Discussion Starter #294
As the new year gets going....

BMW Market Cap = US$54B, down 22% from this time last year

Daimler Market Cap = US$50B, down 36% from this time last year

VW Market Cap = US$84B, down 20% from this time last year

Tesla Market Cap = US$59B, up 1% from this time last year.




Plus:
- Tesla grew production massively YoY, while the others production stayed flat or declined.
- Tesla's production capacity is 100% utilized, while the others have spare capacity.
- Tesla has R&D and production concentrated on 3 models, while the others spread it over dozens.
- Tesla has no unions, no legacy costs such as aging factories and pension liabilities, while the others are smothered by them.



The idea that BMW, Mercedes and even VWAG are better positioned to lead the industry in its transition to EVs is plainly ridiculous. For them, the EV transition, is simply yet another massive cost, on top of all their legacy plants, their unions, their pension liabilities, and, in the case of the German automakers the infestation of union members and state governments in their boards.


Good luck with that.
 

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What Hans Christian Andersen's little boy knew since the year dot:

Chief Executive Elon Musk told employees in a memo reviewed by The Wall Street Journal. "Higher volume and manufacturing design improvements are crucial for Tesla to achieve the economies of scale required to manufacture the standard range (220 mile), standard interior Model 3 at $35k and still be a viable company."
- and what I've been saying for over a year on here, since I had to recognise 'The Second Coming, Mass-Market Model 3'.

The Kona/Niro and just months away VW I.D. have changed the game - actually, not media bluster - and Musk is now a reactor, not a disruptor.

Price is the determinant, not 'planet saver', especially as 90% in the so-called 'rich West' are now broke, debtors not consumers, and Musk has already soaked up the $60-70k-paying idiots, in the Bay Area and so on.

An electric car is just a car, after all. It's currently about $5k over the price of an equivalent ICE, so a $20-25k Golf.

The Kona/Niro already suits 85% or so of Model 3 buyers, with just the fringe rich geeks wanting sub 5s 0-60 mph, etc.

Playtime is over. Musk has a hugely overmanned Fremont factory - around double the headcount needed for a Golf type production unit.

VW, Hyundai-Kia will rip Tesla in two. That was plain from over a year ago, when I said it.

Their economies of scale and production knowhow in the ultra mass market - >3m units on one platform(MQB, MEB etc) -trumps any 'easter eggs' or other diversionary trivia the Messiah Musk and his disciples/brainwashed cultists think they have.

His 'Autopilot' for instance, still doesn't work, with GM's autonomous level 2/3 systems being better, and the likes of the new 2020 Merc S-Class, BMW iNext likely to take the game on way past Tesla's abilities.

Fraud's over, time to be a real car company, or go bust.
 

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What Hans Christian Andersen's little boy knew since the year dot:



- and what I've been saying for over a year on here, since I had to recognise 'The Second Coming, Mass-Market Model 3'.

The Kona/Niro and just months away VW I.D. have changed the game - actually, not media bluster - and Musk is now a reactor, not a disruptor.

Price is the determinant, not 'planet saver', especially as 90% in the so-called 'rich West' are now broke, debtors not consumers, and Musk has already soaked up the $60-70k-paying idiots, in the Bay Area and so on.

An electric car is just a car, after all. It's currently about $5k over the price of an equivalent ICE, so a $20-25k Golf.

The Kona/Niro already suits 85% or so of Model 3 buyers, with just the fringe rich geeks wanting sub 5s 0-60 mph, etc.

Playtime is over. Musk has a hugely overmanned Fremont factory - around double the headcount needed for a Golf type production unit.

VW, Hyundai-Kia will rip Tesla in two. That was plain from over a year ago, when I said it.

Their economies of scale and production knowhow in the ultra mass market - >3m units on one platform(MQB, MEB etc) -trumps any 'easter eggs' or other diversionary trivia the Messiah Musk and his disciples/brainwashed cultists think they have.

His 'Autopilot' for instance, still doesn't work, with GM's autonomous level 2/3 systems being better, and the likes of the new 2020 Merc S-Class, BMW iNext likely to take the game on way past Tesla's abilities.

Fraud's over, time to be a real car company, or go bust.
So all the OEMs are panick making Evs and you don't think Tesla haven't caused any disruption? That's an extremely odd view. They (OEMs) would have made compliance numbers of EVs if it weren't for Tesla (now the best selling sedan in the US, the Frauds). As usual your post includes inaccuracies. It's not clear that Hyundai-Kia intend to make very large numbers or the Kona and Niro. The ID is still concept. But more importantly, VW have scaled back their "plans" from 2-3 million to 1 million by 2025 (so less than 10%). As far as anyone knows, Tesla are the only company making and selling EVs profitably. The ID looks like a joke car. None of BMWs offerings look competitive with the Ipace never mind a Tesla. So despite the obviously greater resources, the German cartel are going to release a bunch of non-competitive EVs over the next few years - it's almost like they don't want to sell any.
 

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All the 'disruptors'/unicorns/scams/outright frauds are blowing up. First JLR, then Tesla, now Apple:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-18/foxconn-cuts-50000-seasonal-jobs-iphone-sales-slowdown-stings

- the slightest down turn in the ponzi, of the last 10/40 years, and these 'new order' corporations start acting as all scam outfits of time immemorial - they go bust or plead for taxpayer bailout.
As a huge Apple fan, I have to oppose to you saying things about one of my favourite companies. Cutting production due to lower sales predicitions due to a downturn in the world economics is perfectly trustworthy. How can that be a scam? I work with Windows 10 every day and worked with earlier versions as well. I can't see, how anyone in their right mind, can think that Windows has a better user interface and is more pleasant to work with. Apple can do something, that no-one else can do. True, you can probably be just as productive using competing products, but it's not as easy nor as pleasant.
 

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All the 'disruptors'/unicorns/scams/outright frauds are blowing up. First JLR, then Tesla, now Apple:

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-18/foxconn-cuts-50000-seasonal-jobs-iphone-sales-slowdown-stings

- the slightest down turn in the ponzi, of the last 10/40 years, and these 'new order' corporations start acting as all scam outfits of time immemorial - they go bust or plead for taxpayer bailout.
This is OT but no doubt it won't be moved. I've seen you and Pekem post consecutive off topic posts on threads before now. Your trolling must be the only thing keeping this site going
 

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Discussion Starter #300
Tesla got Dutch/European homologation for the Model 3.

There are three ships heading to Europe with ˜6,000 Tesla Model 3 each.

Glovis Captain left San Francisco on January 12th and has cleared the Panama Canal, arriving Feb 3 in Belgium.
Glovis Cosmos has left San Francisco on January 19th, headed to Norway.
Glovis Symphony is being loaded today and should depart soon.


I guess we can call it the T-Day Invasion.
 
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