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Is the Tesla Model 3 Likely to Be the Most Important Car of this Decade?

  • Yes

    Votes: 6 40.0%
  • No

    Votes: 9 60.0%

  • Total voters
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Yes, I'm all smiles after a big (for me, so not very) investment in Tesla a couple of weeks ago. Looking like a good move now. Also massively hedged against a Brexit crash on the pound so I can't really lose.:D
 

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Discussion Starter #262
Yes, I'm all smiles after a big (for me, so not very) investment in Tesla a couple of weeks ago. Looking like a good move now. Also massively hedged against a Brexit crash on the pound so I can't really lose.:D
Nice. Congrats. Timing the market is tricky, but when it works it is a great feeling.

As to other automakers catching up, so far there seems to be nothing stopping Tesla. Chevy Volt/Ampera did nothing to stop them. Nissan Leaf did nothing. Jaguar I-Pace is shaping out to be a disaster. Audi is delayed.

Any alternative to Tesla will mean you have to go deal with "dealers" to buy/service your car. It also means there is no fast charging infrastructure to go along with the product. It is like buying a high-speed router with a dial-up interface - ridiculous.

And where is all that battery capacity to be a threat to Tesla going to come from?
 

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Tesla will need to circle their wagons because VW are now on their case.

Volkswagen brand chief Herbert Diess shared (via Electrek, translated from German):

Here we come very strong now. We have invested 30 billion in electromobility, we have already rededicated a plant in Zwickau, and we are building an electric vehicle plant in Shanghai. We will come in 2020 with vehicles that can do anything like Tesla and are cheaper by half.
So there Elon, you have been told :)
 

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Tesla will need to circle their wagons because VW are now on their case.

So there Elon, you have been told :)
Imagine Speth going on something like Question Time(BBC), as Herbert Diess did on the ZDF current affairs programme, a special on Dieselgate/city bans for clean air, and talking lucidly, calmly, humbly and charmingly. I was impressed.

Let's cut to the chase, on EVs, Diess and VW knows that they're basically a commodity, so price of the battery is all-important, to get to this nirvana of ~€30k for genuine 500km range.

That is exactly why VW let it be known this week that a) the Audi e-tron's intro was complicated by the battery price from LG Chem - exerting pressure, and b) again through the public and pressure, the mooted joint battery production with smaller Korean outfit SK.

EVs are basically about purchasing, and having, like alternators, tyres etc, an alternative source, preferably several.

VW is pushing back on the LG Chem and Samsung somewhat stranglehold.

There's no mystery to EVs, done properly and in high mass production - millions a year, like VAG's 'MQB' cars etc.

The Germans know how to do motors obviously, Siemens, Bosch etc, so the critical point is the battery and its cost.

Tesla and Musk have diverted people onto thinking $55k Model 3s are 'mass market'; they aren't.

The €30-35k VW ID/'Neo', with adequate performance, similar to Golf GTI, Hyundai Kona, and genuine 300 mile range, and internal space at least that of a Passat, will be the first real mass market EV, which is why Diess was so bullishly confident on the programme, in his mild mannered way.
 

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Tesla will need to circle their wagons because VW are now on their case.

So there Elon, you have been told :)
What Diess said: "Wir werden 2020 kommen mit Fahrzeugen, die alles können wie Tesla und um die Hälfte billiger sind"

Musk and Tesla can't do this - a Model 3 for €30k/$35k - after two years of promising - because it would make a loss, around $10k.

VW has far more expertise and economies of scale in producing ~€25k cars, Golf, Polo etc.

Its only hurdle to do what Tesla promised since two years, is to get the battery, ~60 kWh, down to around double the cost of an econobox's engine+gearbox, around €10k, and make a profit.

Then, with SK Innovation, its own cell/battery production perhaps, other new European entrants, it can drive down the cost, in typical year on year productivity improvement/profit sharing, as is the norm with ICE and suppliers.

VW sees EV as not a New World, saving the planet, transforming society, and all the other guff swallowed by the Bay Area acolytes and simpletons brainwashed by the idiot tube everywhere, but simply another car, with a different propulsion, that needs to be made profitably, and in the volumes that will keep 500,000+ employees active.

Amateur hour - Tesla, I-Pace - is at 59:57. The Taycan launches within six months, and the ID/Neo within twelve.

Hyundai will have plenty up its sleeve, working with its chaebol Korean mates. VW and Diess knows this, but currently has to pretend that Tesla is the target, so not to upset the snowflake fanboys.
 

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It might be said that Tesla are amateurs at car manufacturing but Jaguar may not think so.

A0518317-AB5-B-4503-AFA3-197-AF79-D545-F.jpg

Tesla slowly appearing to justify the amount of column inches, tweets and general bravado it has attracted over the past few years? The fact that, according to AID research and official data supplied by Tesla and Tata Motors - the Indian owner of Jaguar - Tesla delivered more vehicles globally than Jaguar during the opening three quarters of the year, suggests perhaps slowly they might be

During this year’s third quarter Tesla’s global deliveries almost doubled that of Jaguar’s retail sales totalling 83,500 and 41,940 respectively according to data supplied by both manufacturers.

This is the first time Tesla has outpaced a relatively major premium car manufacturer in terms of global deliveries.

AID research also identified that Porsche fell behind Tesla during this year’s third quarter.

Porsche recorded 69,962 third quarter sales globally, while year-to-date the German luxury car manufacturer still remains ahead with 196,562 global sales, an increase of 5.7 per cent over last year compared with Tesla’s 154,220 opening three quarters deliveries.
There may be a question about the accuracy of Jaguar’s sales.
 

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Discussion Starter #267
On price, Tesla this week started deliveries of the Model 3 Midrange for $46,000, making it by far and away the lowest cost premium long range EV.

The Standard (short) range Model 3 was always planned after battery prices further decreased, currently planned for "sometime in 2019". Either way, it is not relevant as it will not be more than a few % of the model range.

Tesla is now making money by the hundreds of millions per quarter, and as battery capacity increases, their product range will increase.

All other automakers are half a decade of more behind Tesla. And falling further behind. Audi (part of mighty VWAG) had to admit that they don't have the battery cost/capacity and SW ready to launch.
 

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On price, Tesla this week started deliveries of the Model 3 Midrange for $46,000, making it by far and away the lowest cost premium long range EV.

The Standard (short) range Model 3 was always planned after battery prices further decreased, currently planned for "sometime in 2019". Either way, it is not relevant as it will not be more than a few % of the model range.

Tesla is now making money by the hundreds of millions per quarter, and as battery capacity increases, their product range will increase.

All other automakers are half a decade of more behind Tesla. And falling further behind. Audi (part of mighty VWAG) had to admit that they don't have the battery cost/capacity and SW ready to launch.
Yes, the ipace is a perfectly good stab at a premium SUV EV at a price point that is sensible given European competition (Telsa model S and X). Once the model 3 finally makes it to Europe, no one will be able to compete, not even VW. Only half a decade behind, you sure?
 

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Discussion Starter #269
Yes, this just happened. Tesla's valuation just surpassed that of BMW's!!!!


https://electrek.co/2018/11/08/tesla-tsla-surpasses-bmw-valuation/


"The California-based electric automaker’s market cap is now worth over $59 billion while BMW’s slipped below 49 billion euros ($55 billion) yesterday after it announced lower than anticipated profit for the last quarter."
 

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Discussion Starter #270

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Discussion Starter #271
Well, well, well.....lets take a look at the largest market (California) in the largest national market for premium vehicles (US)....


Q3 2018 vs Q3 2017 actual new car registrations

Tesla sales up ˜400%

Jaguar sales down ˜40%

Tesla outsold Jaguar by 20 to 1!!!!!


Screen Shot 2018-11-26 at 3.27.19 PM.jpg
 

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Discussion Starter #272
Porsche's North America CEO praises Tesla, says its production volume is 'truly astonishing'

  • Porsche North America CEO Klaus Zellmer complimented Tesla in an interview with The Los Angeles Times published on Friday, calling the automaker's pricing and production level "astonishing."
  • "If you look at what Tesla has done, if you look at their volume and look at their price level, it's truly astonishing," Zellmer told The Times.
  • "If you can do that with one brand and a sales network that is not comprised of dealers and a real sales organization, it's even more astonishing," he added.

https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-production-astonishing-says-porsche-north-america-ceo-2018-12


When you get that kind of compliment from the most accomplished auto brand in history, plus have a market cap of US$62B, plus are producing way over 1,000 vehicles per day....

Well - when will the industry press come to terms with how disruptive Tesla is? When will people in this forum correct themselves and say that they were wrong to claim Tesla wold be out of business before [insert several dates]?
 

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Tesla suddenly seems so yesterday, or rather a Noughties thing, like the age of its cars.

Verdict

4.5

Audi's first electric car is a hit. The e-tron is quieter, more comfortable and better to drive than Tesla’s Model X. Its 249-mile electric range may not change the game, but it excels as a high-quality family SUV.
https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/audi/e-tron/105425/new-audi-e-tron-55-quattro-review

A real car from a real car producer, suddenly makes the Model X seem the crass, one trick, obsolete thing it is.

Rivian shows what a real, high-tech, high-brains start up can do, as opposed to Welfare Queen Tesla.

Only the geeks and nerds would now choose 'the computer on wheels', as opposed to mature, normal people who just want a car that works, is not aimed at 10 year old gamers that never grew up, and is not usuriously priced for the cheap rubbish it actually is.

Yes, we know German auto execs say every five minutes how amazing Tesla and Beta boy Musk are, but that's just necessary PR for unbalanced Yanks, who believe The Third Reich is still in power in Berlin, ...Wolfsburg, Munich, Stuttgart... .

They know Tesla had a free ride - actually $billions from US taxpayers - for a decade, because no one believed they were so many infantile nerds about, who would fall for the cheesiest propaganda/scam on saving the planet and so on.

Next comes real EVs, not 10 year old Model Ss and derivatives, that flake out on a couple of 'ludicrous runs'.

Hyundai will crush Tesla from the bottom, and VAG will do to the same to Tesla's modern-day equivalent of 70s Yank tanks - under-engineered, overpriced, over the hill, with cheaper, infinitely better Taycans, e-tron GTs etc.

Tesla is not the equivalent of Apple, as you keep saying Baron. Anyway, Apple's frigged too, with seventh cavalry Trump, or his handlers, rushing in to save it, with the obvious attack on the Chinese.

Tesla is DeLorean on stilts - snatch as much dopey taxpayers' money as possible, pronounce you have made the future, then, hopefully, disappear in a cloud of smoke and confusion, blaming the collapse on doomers and naysayers.
 

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Tesla suddenly seems so yesterday, or rather a Noughties thing, like the age of its cars.



https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/audi/e-tron/105425/new-audi-e-tron-55-quattro-review

A real car from a real car producer, suddenly makes the Model X seem the crass, one trick, obsolete thing it is.

Rivian shows what a real, high-tech, high-brains start up can do, as opposed to Welfare Queen Tesla.

Only the geeks and nerds would now choose 'the computer on wheels', as opposed to mature, normal people who just want a car that works, is not aimed at 10 year old gamers that never grew up, and is not usuriously priced for the cheap rubbish it actually is.

Yes, we know German auto execs say every five minutes how amazing Tesla and Beta boy Musk are, but that's just necessary PR for unbalanced Yanks, who believe The Third Reich is still in power in Berlin, ...Wolfsburg, Munich, Stuttgart... .

They know Tesla had a free ride - actually $billions from US taxpayers - for a decade, because no one believed they were so many infantile nerds about, who would fall for the cheesiest propaganda/scam on saving the planet and so on.

Next comes real EVs, not 10 year old Model Ss and derivatives, that flake out on a couple of 'ludicrous runs'.

Hyundai will crush Tesla from the bottom, and VAG will do to the same to Tesla's modern-day equivalent of 70s Yank tanks - under-engineered, overpriced, over the hill, with cheaper, infinitely better Taycans, e-tron GTs etc.

Tesla is not the equivalent of Apple, as you keep saying Baron. Anyway, Apple's frigged too, with seventh cavalry Trump, or his handlers, rushing in to save it, with the obvious attack on the Chinese.

Tesla is DeLorean on stilts - snatch as much dopey taxpayers' money as possible, pronounce you have made the future, then, hopefully, disappear in a cloud of smoke and confusion, blaming the collapse on doomers and naysayers.
Capital markets all over have fallen but there have been bright spots:

Tesla up by 3.6% today :)


Tesla has begun the construction process for its second 'Gigafactory' in China after President Trump's trade war hurt its foreign sales
Business Insider
Tesla has begun the bidding and construction processes for its first Chinese factory, according to documents seen by Reuters. Shanghai Mayor Ying Yong said Wednesday that preparation work is nearly complete, with other residents adding that exterior fencing looks nearly complete. The factory could help Tesla's foreign sales, which plunged after China raised tariffs on US-built cars thanks to President Donald Trump's ongoing trade war. SHANGHAI (Reuters) - Tesla Inc has opened a tender process to Read the full story

Shared from Apple News




 

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Discussion Starter #275
Here is what few in the press have picked up on.

Why silly JLR, Mercedes, Audi, et al had to enter into 50/50 joint ventures to make cars in China, Tesla, and only Tesla, has secured the right to a fully owned foreign car factory in China.

Think about that for a second. All the others folded their tail between their legs and agreed to cede control to the Chinese with their 50% partner.

Tesla will fully own its plant and venture in China!!!






Tell me that does not outclass all the legacy automakers!!!!
 

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So now that Jaguar/Magna have been in production for several months and presumably have hit steady state, lets look at I-Pace volumes.

In November/2018 Jaguar was able to deliver 2,195 I-Paces. That is a run rate of ˜510 vehicles/week.

By way of comparison, Tesla has demonstrated 14x that amount peak (>1,000 day) and 12x that amount sustained (>6,000/week) just for the Model 3, with an additional 2,000 or so/week Model S/X.

That just illustrates the scale of a serious EV manufacturer (Tesla) vs the legacy automakers toy production numbers.
You really bask in the fact, that Tesla after 10 years of broken promises has actually been able to produce the planned number of cars for one quarter. Please don't get me wrong. I have nothing against Tesla, neither as a company nor as a car. But you know perfectly well, what trouble Tesla had "ramping up" the production of the Model 3. It took them almost a year of postponing and making excuses. And it was the same with the earlier models. Tesla has never been making money before. Money from selling one model was supposed to fund the development of the next model. Tesla was never able to do that, even though they promised it. Instead more investors had to put money into the company, even after Tesla repeatedly had said, that would never be necessary again.

You also know perfectly well, how industry and financial analysts have criticized Tesla. That's why I think it's a little wrong to drag Tesla to the front and show them as a shining example of how things should be done. Tesla has had one good quarter. The first ten years were not as shiny. Unfortunately my English is not good enough to talk about the questionable ways of giving financial statements and conduction business. It has always been very funny to listen to Elon Musk and others from Tesla trying to talk their way out of questions from investigative journalists. And what about all his silly tweets? I know only one person, who sends out more silly tweets. In the end, he almost got punished from it and had to step down as chairman. It's great that Tesla finally seems to be profitable, but to show Tesla as a prime example of how to run a car company is a little farfetched.
 

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Discussion Starter #277
You also know perfectly well, how industry and financial analysts have criticized Tesla. .
I'm sorry, but am I missing something?

Tesla has a market capitalization (driven by those financial analysts) of ˜$61.5B (today, after all the market sell off).

BMW has a market cap of US$53B

Daimler AG has a market cap of US$50B

Tata Motors has a market cap of $7.7B (Just 1/8th of the value of Tesla)

It is clear which company the financial analysts thing is better run and more capable of generating good returns.





As to problems, yes. Tesla had problems trying to do what has never done before. Ramp up EV production and battery capacity to levels that even Porsche's CEO calls astonishing.

Tesla had no issues whatsoever producing 2,195 EVs/month. They had "problems" trying to do that level of production every day. They are more than 1/2 way there, by the way.

So you can call having really, really hard/stretch goals a problem. I call it bold and how a company should be run. Setting only easy to achieve goals is for wimps.
 

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Here is what few in the press have picked up on.

Why silly JLR, Mercedes, Audi, et al had to enter into 50/50 joint ventures to make cars in China, Tesla, and only Tesla, has secured the right to a fully owned foreign car factory in China.

Think about that for a second. All the others folded their tail between their legs and agreed to cede control to the Chinese with their 50% partner.

Tesla will fully own its plant and venture in China!!!

Tell me that does not outclass all the legacy automakers!!!!
I'll tell you. Tesla doesn't.

You're mixing up the recent policy change by the Chinese govt, to allow foreign companies to 100% own their previous JVs. BMW has already done this, so is first. It's spending billions to buy out the Chinese co.'s 50%.

Tesla is just doing this because its factory is post that rule change. That's all.

Daimler was also reported this week to be following suit with BMW.
 

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Now, to real matters. The 70 years young 'legacy maker' Porsche is doing its usual - wiping the floor with anything it turns its attention to - sports cars, SUVs, sports saloons, hi-performance hybrids, Le Mans winners... and now proper, perfromance, luxury EVs:

https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/porsche-taycan-tesla-orders/

Not everyone's daft, a dupe for the media's messages, like Tesla being the future, an Ipad on wheels, the disruptor, the auto industry's Apple, Musk a genus/messiah.

That garbage only works with geeks with a mental development age around ten, who adore the fact a Tesla has Space Invaders.

Normal people recognise Porsche's true excellence, proven time and time again, not faked by media propaganda.

Each time Porsche enters a sector, it wipes the floor, with only Merc and BMW competing. Not even the similarly propagandized to Tesla by the UK media especially McLaren, can hold a candle, as shown by the 'hyper cars', P1 and 720S, having their butts kicked by the 918 and GT2 RS in the real world.

Porsche's Taycan, the Audi variants, e-tron GT, and others not revealed yet, will murder the Model S, and its supposed all-new replacement, due when?

Tesla is a bit like Land Rover, which the British were told was a world beater for years, but actually was protected within basically the old empire from competition, similar to Tesla's appeal to Silicon Valley/Bay area nerds and IT geeks.

Land Rover fell over the moment it met any serious opposition, from the Japanese, and its inadequacy was exposed. It only survived through marketing, in the form of the Range Rover, which again for a while had no opposition, a bit like the Model S after the Roadster.

Once both meet real, almost decades ahead competition, they fall over, as both are 99% PR and media promotion, to the feeble minded, fad followers.

Hyundai's relentless work ethic will destroy Tesla's chance of producing a mass-market priced car, not getting within $15k, whereas Porsche's engineering/tech excellence will take the high end away, once customers experience what a real engineered EV can do.

Musk might be a looney tune, but he knows this, or has enough top MBAs/MIT grads advising him of this, and so has raced to get as rich as possible, from US taxpayers, before the window closes.
 

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I'm sorry, but am I missing something?

Tesla has a market capitalization (driven by those financial analysts) of ˜$61.5B (today, after all the market sell off).

BMW has a market cap of US$53B

Daimler AG has a market cap of US$50B

Tata Motors has a market cap of $7.7B (Just 1/8th of the value of Tesla)

It is clear which company the financial analysts thing is better run and more capable of generating good returns.


As to problems, yes. Tesla had problems trying to do what has never done before. Ramp up EV production and battery capacity to levels that even Porsche's CEO calls astonishing.

Tesla had no issues whatsoever producing 2,195 EVs/month. They had "problems" trying to do that level of production every day. They are more than 1/2 way there, by the way.

So you can call having really, really hard/stretch goals a problem. I call it bold and how a company should be run. Setting only easy to achieve goals is for wimps.
I don't know, if you are missing something, but you seem to have a short memory. It's great, that Tesla finally seems to have succeeded. I just don't think, they are a stellar example of, how you should run a company. Not yet at least. Tesla had huge issues ramping up the Model 3 production. Elon Musk even called it production hell. They kept promising production number, they couldn't reach. They tried to hide that by saying, that on the last day of the quarter, they reached their goal. As though from now on, they could continue producing that number of cars. They couldn't.

Of course it's a good thing to set yourself high goals. In many ways. But when you are a publicly traded company, you can't just say anything. You can't just give some high imaginary numbers, you try to reach next quarter. You must be realistic, and you must be open about your possibilities. Just like Apple had to announce, when Steve Jobs became ill. Even though it could not only harm the company, it was also something personal, that most people would prefer to keep away from the public. Tesla does not seem to take this very seriously. Tesla has broken so many promises over the years and have failed to reach their goals on many occasions. It's great, if the problems are over. It's great if Tesla can become profitable from now. It's great if they can now earn money and use that money to develop new models like the truck and the Roadster, they've shown a long time ago. And wasn't there a pickup as well? Instead of taking deposits for the next model and using that money to keep the factory running. One lucky strike does not change the perception of the company. Let's wait and see, if they can keep delivering.
 
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