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interesting or mad?:
Interesting, but with a lot of bubbles. Those will burst sooner or later. In 5 years, even more in 10, the picture will be clearer. The Chinese will not rule the (EV) world; BMW, Mercedes and the Volkswagen Group will be doing fine.

Right now the open question is if Jaguar has a future. This year should give the answer.
 

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Interesting, but with a lot of bubbles. Those will burst sooner or later. In 5 years, even more in 10, the picture will be clearer. The Chinese will not rule the (EV) world; BMW, Mercedes and the Volkswagen Group will be doing fine.

Right now the open question is if Jaguar has a future. This year should give the answer.
If you listen to the Tesla fans, they are pretty sure, that the old and certainly the German car factories will have a hard time. If they survive, their sales will be much lower than now. Tesla on the other hand will produce up to 20 million cars in 2030 and have 20-25 % of the world car market. The new factory in Grünheide is only one quarter of the planned factory. It can produce 500,000 cars annually now, but with the next three "corners" added, it will be able to produce 2 million cars. Then there is the Texas factory and the Shanghai one, which can be expanded quickly, according to them. One of the reasons for the succes of Tesla is, that Tesla is securing batteries for themselves in the future, while many other car manufacturers are not realising, how large a supply of batteries, they are going to need. They are not preparing for the surge in EV sales, which is coming. Again according to the Tesla fans.
 

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Taycan, Porsche's top UK seller:

Porsche sales hit record levels in 2021 as Taycan sales double | Autocar

- giving the lie to 'SUVs or nothing'. JLR binned Jaguar to put everything on very expensive, very profitable SUVs - Defender, New Range Rover/Sport.

The Model X is outsold massively by the lifted, tailgated version of the Model 3, the Model Y.

JLR switched massively into diesel just as diesel was crescendoing. JLR bet everything on huge, very expensive SUVs just as sedans(/faux SUVs, minivans reborn) were reviving due to EV and its need for lower frontal areas.
 

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Regarding Telsa, as I wrote recently, I found it quite interesting that the US magazine caranddriver wrote in a review that the Taycan by far outsells the Model S and X combined. Now looking at the Tesla figures, last year just 3 percent of their sold cars were Model S and X.

For me, it is not a good sign for Tesla, that one model line from Porsche is outselling their highest models. Musk can surely write what he wants, but at the end the reality will always win.
 

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We're scrabbling round for news on Tesla, Porsche, whoever, because there's nothing on JLR.

The Taycan is the telltale of how EV has decimated JLR especially in the UK. The electric Macan will annihilate it.
 

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Autocar avoids the huge drop in the last quarter of 2021:



The collapse of JLR in the second half of 2021 is blamed on chip shortage. Defender is spent. New Range Rover has not taken up the slack. '30,000 orders' is a joke for such a high profile, enormously pushed product. I-Pace had claimed not much less when it started, '25,000 orders'. Taycan is production-constrained at 40,000+ genuine annual sales.

So the news is JLR's sales are awful, the industry's worst, but it's business as usual covering up this final collapse, caused by no EV, and Tata ensuring its shares rise up for the day, on this devastating news.

It's sheer madness.
 

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About 20% heavier, almost comparable efficiency - not bad for a make-do product:

'A score very close to the benchmark Tesla Model 3 Grande Autonomie, which sipped 23.1 kWh / 100 km on the same course done at the same time ( read our i4 vs Model 3 match ).'

 

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The Taycan is the telltale of how EV has decimated JLR especially in the UK.
The I-Pace/Taycan and Jaguar/Porsche comparison is quite telling.

The Taycan sales last year are not far away from the total I-Pace sales. As Porsche planned to sell 20k Taycans a year, twice as much is already a huge success. And if Porsche has the production capacity, this year will get even better.

The I-Pace sales were never as good as planned, and are moving downwards. That leads me to an answer to the starting question:

Was it too early for the I-Pace?

I would say no, that the I-Pace was there before the Taycan was an advantage. If something is not selling, the typical reasons are:
  • too expensive
  • not good enough
  • brand image/marketing

With the I-Pace, every of that points will play a role. Now it is too late to solve that anyway, as Tata has obviously given up.

Porsche is the total opposite, they have done everything right. Tesla will notice that too... and even more what BMW is doing.
 

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Sad to read (from the article above)
The company, which aims to be Britain’s leading electric carmaker, delivered only 14,400 vehicles in the fourth quarter of last year
But as their competitors are not in hibernation, that is the expected development. If this trend continues, the Taycan alone could outsell Jaguar this year.
 

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JLR's booming:


A moment of thought by this journo would tell him this 'record demand' thing has been wheeled out by JLR to hide the fact that its production, sales and actual demand have collapsed.

Most or all global carmakers struggled with a supply deficit in 2021, with regular 6 month, 1 year, or more delivery times.

Let's take a year, as JLR is supposedly booming. That would mean it would have an order book of around 400,000 cars.

The 150,000 'record' orders claimed is less than 6 months of production.

150,000 odd might sound impressive, but it's just a couple of months work to what JLR was running at in 2015/16.

'30,000 orders' for New Range Rover is probably six months or less for its installed capacity. JLR would have planned, bet the house on New Range Rover being a huge hit back in 2018/19, and I'm sure envisaged New Range Rover and New RRSport - almost identical cars of course - doing as much as 200k a year combined at peak around 2024/5.

The most telling thing about this awful piece from this 'business' site is that it doesn't mention the Halewood cars, and doesn't appreciate the irony of that.

JLR has not mentioned these cars in its press release because their sales are appalling, and there is no demand, record or otherwise for them.

Halewood has no future. The supposed EV cars to replace or supplement Evoque and DSport are not coming for 2 years at least. I doubt they exist more than Powerpoint slides.

5 years ago, the press was full of rumours that JLR was going to buy the Ellesmere Port plant across the Mersey, due to inability to keep up with demand for the Evoque and DSport. Now, Stellantis is making EVs there, and maybe Stellantis can pick up a firesale of Halewood from Tata, to make even more EV vans.

Halewood and JLR are deadmen walking. It's just that the locals in Liverpool, Merseyside haven't be told. They live in blissful ignorance.
 

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Maybe Musk could make his non-existent Cybertruck, Semi, and New Roadster in JLR's non-existent Halewood EV plant?:


Of course, like JLR's awful sales figures sending Tata Motors higher, the news that Tesla is confirmed as a one-trick pony company - Model 3/its lifted version(Y) - send TSLA higher. The Electric Viking Youtube person will have an aneurysm.

So basically Tesla needs 4 giant factories, Fremont, Austin, Berlin and Shanghai, producing 500k to 1m a year each, to satisfy demand for one car, priced on average at ~$55k, twice the price of a median car. Right... .

Herbert Diess at VW and the Chinese must be laughing their socks off. They know Tesla can't fail, like Tata for India, but they also know Tesla, as shown by make-do cars like the BMW i4 and iX, is not the exceptional, untouchable entity it's made out to be, by pumpers like Electric Viking and TeslaBjorn.
 

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German establishment has got the message that Tesla and its white elephant Berlin plant must be saved at all costs, with the transport minister basically ordering Germans to buy one:


Tesla cannot go down in flames. Not just major egg on face, all the public money hosed at Musk and co. by the German taxpayer, backhanders etc, but the all-important Save the Planet thing, Zero Carbon for the peasants.

The Berlin plant is endlessly delayed because Europe cannot digest 500k/yr Model Ys from there - almost VW Golf levels, at around 2.5 times the price.

Before they finally open it, turn on the taps full blast, they have to have some semblance of real demand - at least 100k/yr in Europe.

This shows their desperation.
 

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If this is so, you may as well turn the lights off at JLR now:


Just 2-3% base rate will collapse the house price and all other bubbles.

The Chinese will clean up with $15-25k EVs.

Is this why the German transport minister is so panicked? Who will buy tens of thousands of €60k Model Ys when the middle class has been wiped out? Median salaries of €80k/yr combined per household weren't funding the leasing of €500-700/month premium EVs - forever house price inflation was.
 

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The Berlin plant is endlessly delayed because Europe cannot digest 500k/yr Model Ys from there...
It will be interesting to see what happens next. The view on Tesla could change anyway.

Another week without any Jaguar news, it will be a long year. Even more for their workers and dealers.
 

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Another week without any Jaguar news, it will be a long year. Even more for their workers and dealers.
Jaguar - electric XJ - actually got mentioned in the Out of Spec Podcast - @8:10-8:35


But notice the other guys' reactions - glazed eyes, disinterested, polite nods. Kyle Conner is a huge English car nut, but even he seemed impatient that the Spreen guy brought it up.

They know that Jaguar is dead, pointless talking about. Conner wants to buy a Taycan, and his partner wants a Rivian SUV - when it's available. They'll probably compromise on a BMW iX. No one even mentions Land Rover/Range Rover anymore - unless they're paid to.

The dealers are quiet as mice. They're petrified, and probably warned by JLR legal not to speak to anyone about the dire, real situation.

Even the Royal association has backfired. The Queen's son driving around in a Range Rover now is reason not to buy one. Also, UK's true elite - self-declared - sneer, laugh at the Royals, as seen by No.10's parties, and are people far more likely to buy Taycans, Teslas and Volvos, than a chintzy, 'brass car' Range Rover.

JLR has everything going against it, that once made it successful between 2010 and 2015.
 

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There's another way to look at this:


BMW has also just said it's going to continue doing ICE, with brand new, large engines even. BMW is either off its rocker, or it knows something.

Everyone has assumed that ICE will be banned in 2030, or sooner, in Europe and China at least, so why is BMW spending €billions on new engines, and a platform, Neue Klasse, that can accommodate ICE as well as EV?

Is it just for the US? Don't think so. I think BMW knows that at the very least ICE will be the preserve of the very rich, once ICE is 'banned', in the same way billionaires' yachts and private jets seem to be exempted from laws for the little people already.
 

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The media suddenly truthtellers, or is their another agenda here?:


'Jaguar' is almost at the point now of Boris Johnson - being set up to get rid of. What I'm saying is, is this deliberate, all this now out in the open, awfully negative news and coverage of Jaguar? I don't think so. I think it's part of Jaguar being set up to then announce it's being switched off.

This allows Tata/JLR to do what they've already done - kill Jaguar. Reimagine as I said was about killing Jaguar, without having to say so.

Jaguar died in 2016, with the failure of New Gen XE and XFII. I-Pace's real job was to sell JLR, not revive Jaguar, or make it an EV brand.

This now torrent of awful news for Jaguar - note not JLR/Land Rover - is about softening up public opinion, in the UK obviously, to the need to stop Jaguar, scapegoating it with the failure of I-Pace - known since late 2018 of course.

Tata/JLR as I said has set on this course, strategy of putting everything on Land Rover, rather Range Rover, and rather just the new Full-fat, the coming new RRSport, and Defender. That's 'JLR'.

They are wedded to it, and cannot move away, as they have no alternative - no EV programme. It's already failed, with the flop of New Range Rover, the end of the hype and initial orders for Defender, and the obvious mania for EV.

They're slicing off limbs, Jaguar first, Evoque/DSport/E-Pace, Velar/F-Pace, but do not realise the trunk of the body is already dead - the 'brass cars'.

The real Express headline should be 'JLR collapses'/'JLR has collapsed'.
 
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