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Tesla will triumph in the end

  • No way, the project is doomed.

    Votes: 12 29.3%
  • Tesla products will be a success

    Votes: 29 70.7%

Tesla Model 3 - Will the future arrive in 2017

157K views 3K replies 26 participants last post by  BMVIrep 
#1 · (Edited)
So, if all goes well, by the end of 2017 Tesla will be selling:

  • a $35,000 5-pax car, with a 215mile+ electric range
  • front and rear trunk (boot), and more interior space than anything close to it in size
  • 5-star safety on every test, super low CG
  • single giant screen to control everything (no mechanical switches, making the interface fully SW customizable)
  • full autopilot HW, with all safety functionality standard
  • backed up by 7,200 supercharging locations and 15,000 destination charging stations (at hotels, restaurants, etc)
  • 411 Tesla-owned (not dealers) stores for service and delivry
  • full web ordering at a single firm price
  • Sub 6-sec 0-100Km/h acceleration even in the base mode
  • AWD, 300 mi+ and sub 4-sec acceleration available as options

Given that they received 180,000 orders (back by a $1,000 deposit) in the first 24 hours, if they can pull this off, they may truly be changing the car industry. That means that Tesla just raised an additional $180,000,000 to invest in developing the product.

Watch and marvel at the Silicon Valley car company that did not exist a few years ago.

 
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#3 ·
#48 ·
Now that we have had a bit of time to do a bit more research and reading, would you want to consider modifying your second sentence to read the following ?

If it breaks there is only financially strapped Tesla to deal with - not a dealer.
I read through the article in your link, and, in doing so, I came across this link, posted by one of the commentators to the original article.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articl...odel-3-could-destroy-elon-musk-s-company.html


Interesting reading.
 
#4 ·
Lets make that 200,000 deposits in 24 hours and counting.

Tesla just got the equivalent of 2 full years of Jaguar production reserved with $1,000 deposits in the first day!!!!

And that is when US fuel prices in Q1/2016 hit a 12 year low!!!


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#11 ·
Lets make that 200,000 deposits in 24 hours and counting.

Tesla just got the equivalent of 2 full years of Jaguar production reserved with $1,000 deposits in the first day!!!!

And that is when US fuel prices in Q1/2016 hit a 12 year low!!!


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This would be the completely refundable, no-quibble-about-giving-it-back deposit? Watch them get returned as Tesla are as late in launching the Model 3 as all previous launches.

I say this as a big fan of the way Tesla has shaken up the industry (including jaguar whose own all electric car is currently being developed) but the car is only half the deal. The other half is the infrastructure to keep it running, and if £/$/€ billions are to be spent on a completely new way of doing things, then electric cars that still need polluting processes to charge them probably isn't the optimum solution.

Unless and until a comprehensive infrastructure is in place, rechargeable electric cars are just an interim technology suitable only to urban runabouts, and private ownership probably isn't the best model for that anyway.
 
#5 ·
Tesla Model 3 - Will the future arrive in 2017

Given that they received 180,000 orders
The fiscal future will certainly arrive for those who want to order now, when they discover that the $7,500 tax break from the U.S. Government has already expired.

It won't arrive for the people of Wales. Zero superchargers for the whole country, and none planned, according to the Tesla web site.
It won't arrive for me in France, as there are no superchargers in the direction I would travel, and none planned.
It won't arrive for me in Spain, as, again according to the Tesla site, there are 2 (two) supercharge stations in the whole country. The nearest is 400 km from my place.

So is the Tesla a car for use in the major urban areas only ?
 
#9 ·
The fiscal future will certainly arrive for those who want to order now, when they discover that the $7,500 tax break from the U.S. Government has already expired.
Why do you think it will not be renewed? Governments the world over are intent on throwing money at electric car buyers. With the low information voters whipped into a frenzy by the climate alarmists, it is a god bet that even more incentives are coming.

What is more likely, that governments in Europe will turn against electric cars, or that they will turn against diesel cars, and start banning them from city centers and the like?

Ooops.
 
#7 ·
But I am still limited in the number of KM I can do.

Just an example in the north and north west of France.

I can drive the 501 km to my daughter's holiday home in 5 hours, with no need to stop to fill up my car.

In a Model 3, I would have to travel an additional 113 km, taking detours so that I could re-charge twice at supercharger stations.
My total journey, including the two half hour stops for charging, would take over seven and a half hours.
More than 20 % extra on the distance, and more than 50 % extra on the time.
 
#10 ·
A near neighbour of mine has an electric car and as I understand it the economics of owning it are amazing.
Firstly there was the ÂŁ5000 government grant. Then there is the BIK rate of just 5%, a big saving on his earlier Mondeo. Add to that the saving of ÂŁ8.50 per day at the local railway station car park because they generously provide free parking and electricity to electric car users. It is by the way that no road fund tax is imposed and when driven through London no congestion charge is applied.
I have benefitted personally from the free parking and electricity at a shopping mall which would ordinarily cost both petrol and, in my case ÂŁ4.00 parking charge.
I am sure the above benefits are not the full scope available, in some places use of bus lanes will be available with impunity.
 
#516 ·
Interesting. Reading your list of positives I can only shake my head at the way people are so easily and willingly bought. Do you believe these benefits will continue forever? Really? "Try this, the first one is free and your neighbor paid for it." If EVs are so good for you why do they have to bribe you into submission? My point is there is a place for EVs and they need to compete equally or they are not ready. I think a city EV can't yet compete on an economic basis with a super low emission ICE car but I would prefer an EV for the performance, convenience, and comfort gains. Haven't you learned yet that "your government is here to help you" has strings attached?
 
#12 ·
Unless and until a comprehensive infrastructure is in place, rechargeable electric cars are just an interim technology suitable only to urban runabouts, and private ownership probably isn't the best model for that anyway

I wonder if that is correct, the infrastructure thing that is.
Check with your local council, if like mine they are partnered with Chargemaster, you may discover that it is not being used very much at all.
There is a Chargemaster pod within 600 yards of my house and the use it has had over the years it has been installed is neglible. Best of all it is free to use, both parking and electricity.
 
#15 ·
There is a Chargemaster pod within 600 yards of my house and the use it has had over the years it has been installed is neglible. Best of all it is free to use, both parking and electricity.
But, realistically, this situation can only last for so long.
At some point in time, a tipping point will be reached, which is likely to have a significant effect on the economics of the electric car.

It is fairly easy to identify different tipping points.

When whoever supports the costs of free charging can no longer afford to supply free power.
(The French have already estimated that a half hour supercharge costs 40 € in electricity. If it's free now, it won't stay that way for long).

When governments start to feel the impact of the loss of revenues from duties on petrol and diesel.
(55 % of the price of petrol in France is taxes. I read an article indicating the French government calculation. When electric cars represent 3.5 % of the total number of cars on the road, they will feel free to adapt revenue generation to cover the loss of petrol duties).

When more power stations are required to satisfy the demands of electric cars.
(Then we relaunch the debates on; fossil fuels or nuclear, where to build them, how to finance them etc).

I suspect that those who get the most benefit out of electric cars will be the ones who get in early. They may not have the advantages of evolving technology, but they will probably have a significant economic advantage.
 
#14 ·
Jeepers, a little googling reveals that the factory necessary to produce batteries cheaply enough for the Tesla 3 to be made for anything close to its retail price hasn't even been finished yet. No batteries can be produced yet, let alone cars.
The Times is reporting today that the "Giga" factory in Nevada has almost completed construction. No doubt the batteries supplied to both Toyota and Mercedes, and whoever else, are subject to some contractual arrangements.
 
#17 ·
Typical, reactionary Jaguar forum!!!

Of course in 5 years when Jaguar launches its electric cars, which will be slower than Teslas, with worse range, everyone here will change their tunes.

Just hen 5 years ago I said AWD and SUV was needed, the reactionary drivel here went off the charts. Then suddenly with AWD on all models and F-Pace, Jaguar is super smart.

LOL

So predictable.

Tesla is challenging the automotive world in front of your eyes. Sedans who sit 7, have front and rear boot, and are faster than any other sedan in history, and faster than any Jaguar ever produced, oh, and so happens to run on electron juice. Oh and had people staying in line all night to be the first to order the Model 3.
 
#18 ·
I don't think anyone here is being reactionary.
I would imagine that everyone on here sees a future for electric cars, it just won't start in 2017, as the future started years ago.

I agree that Tesla appears to be challenging the automotive world, but how much of this challenge is really interesting ?
I don't need or want a sedan that can seat 7 people.
Speed for the sake of speed doesn't mean very much. Every single ICE car on the market is more than capable of exceeding the speed limits in most countries of the world, so what is the point of promoting the speed advantage of an electric car ?

Even the issue of Tesla's green credentials is still to be resolved. You must have heard about the recent case in Singapore.
 
#20 ·
electric cars - all good, but can't see free charging point lasting for long - free for now as incentive, ok, but why it should be always free? as Philocd mentioned - in some countries, part of fuel price (most of it) is taxes - with electricity, all this taxes will go somewhere else, affecting everybody i assume, not only road users. unless electricity will start users cost something...
 
#23 ·
It is impossible to defer the costs of operating a vehicle. The shareholders of Tesla are currently (har har) paying for the "free" fuel.

The interesting question is what kind of return on investment do Tesla shareholders expect when they have to buy every customer with a lifetime contract to supply free fuel for their products? The fuel is nice cheap,carbon based fuel. Wait until this is replaced with horrendously expensive renewable based fuel. Welcome to the sailing car.

They've just signed up five times as many new customers as the total to date.
 
#50 ·
Lets see, last time I checked my return on my Tesla investment was about 350%.

Tesla cost of providing electricity via superchargers and destination chargers is under $150.00/car/year - a trivial and ridiculous amount. It is comparable to Mercedes and GM offering their free concierge services.Tesla can do it forever without any meaningful impact.

The real cost is the capital to build the infrastructure - but that is building capital for the company.
 
#24 ·
I've no idea if you live in an urban or rural environment of course but whichever it doesn't really surprise me that charging points are underused, since there remains a lack of confidence in the whole concept which it seems to me will remain unless/until one of the tipping points so well described above is reac
Actually the point I wanted to make and didn't is the reason that the infrastructure is not used is because owners of AV vehicles are habitually charging there cars from home and because of the relatively short journeys, under 10 miles, the need for additional charging doesn't arise.
 
#27 ·
A very brave company, they have just broken another record in 2015. They doubled their sales, trebled their losses and reduced their reserves considerably. Still have a new factory to pay for. Shareholders are at last getting itchy feet. This car is their last chance, profit or bust with no means of manufacturing the total sales book should it actually materialise. Two new EV cars at same sales value and spec now competing in the USA and on sale now.
 
#28 ·
Looking at the bottom line is certainly valid and necessary, but does not even tell half of the story. What we call "Tesla Motors" and expect to earn money today are at least three companies by usual standard: The automaker, the infrastructure provider ("Superchargers"), and the battery manufacturer ("Gigafactory"). They earn 25% on every Model S sale if you believe the news, but choose to reinvest this (and more) into the other two parts. As long as the cash flow works and there is a positive bottom line some time in future, that should be ok. And their strategy is brilliant IMHO.

What concerns me most is the low reliability of today's cars. There is virtually no Model S that has survived the first two years without breaking it seems, and these are costs which are hard to factor in when you plan financials for new models or even a new company. And while I believe Elon Musk is able to add the numbers, I doubt Tesla can retain the same level of service if Model 3 needs as many fixes as Model S does. So I do hope they learn how to build reliable cars soon. That is what will decide about Tesla's future I think.

In Germany, where electrical energy is relatively expensive at around 25 ct/kwh, we have around 30% of renewable energy currently and the cost penalty to receive purely renewable electricity is down to around 10%, and getting lower every year. In only a couple of years we will reach more than 50% renewables in average, and competitive costs for 100% renewables. For any country that does not sit on dino juice, type and cost of electricity should not be a roadblock for BEVs. Low fuel prices can be though.

(Disclaimer: I do not own any Tesla share - anymore.)
 
#29 ·
Ah, yes, the illusory declining costs of renewable energy. I'm pretty sure all renewable energy accounting uses magic math much favoured by governments and unavailable to those who toil in the real world.

The currently recoverable reserves of carbon fuels will last humanity in excess of 200 years at currently foreseeable consumption rates. That is the cost horizon facing renewables.

The most obvious green energy is nuclear fusion which is very cheap over a 200 year event horizon.

Only if CO2 is the problem, and it is very difficult to see how it can be, and only if nuclear power generation becomes ubiquitous will EV ever become profitable.

Tesla is doomed by scientific reality soon to become apparent.
 
#30 ·
Nuclear energy again... Cost certainly depends on what you factor in, and nuclear power is cheap only if you neglect the costs of "disposal" as well as the damage of accidents (from Harrisburg to Fukushima, and these are unlikely to be the last). If or if not nuclear fusion will render these arguments obsolete is still under discussion - probably yes regarding accidents and no regarding waste. And as consumption rates as well as technology change, 200 years is pure speculation for all types of energy. Surely mineral oil will last more than 30 years, but none of us can seriously foresee what oil prices will be like in five years. At least nobody guessed five years ago how low they are today, and there is no good reason that they must be the same for the next "200 years". You deal with a lot of assumptions that are not as certain as you claim. Broadcasting what the distant future will be like is rarely done by wise men.

My point was different though: The bottom line of Tesla does not tell much about the company or its chances to succeed. You need to look at the business model and marketing factors like customer loyalty, convincing management etc. I won't bet if they will survive or not, but I hope they do because they do a nice job in shaking up the oligopol of big automakers, and I like driving an electrical vehicle just for the fun of driving it.
 
#31 · (Edited)
My point was different though: The bottom line of Tesla does not tell much about the company or its chances to succeed.
Ultimately, the bottom line is the only thing that matters.

If the bottom line is sufficient to cover; the returns that investors expect, the business requirements for future investments, and corporate taxes, the business is most likely to succeed.

If the bottom line is and stays negative, losses will eat into the company's reserves and capital, and the company will fail.

Tesla's total reported losses, to the end of 2015, amount to 68 % of the company's equity.
In some jurisdictions this would trigger an obligation requiring the Board of Directors to present a plan for the re-capitalisation of the company.

Tesla' current assets are slightly lower than current liabilities. Never a good sign.

Tesla's long term debt is 221 % of net equity.

Tesla's long term debt is double Tesla's cash resources.

If Tesla continues to post losses at the current level, Tesla will be technically and financially insolvent before the Model 3 hits the shops.
 
#32 ·
True - but investors tend to throw money in for a good story, convincing management and a profound business perspective. You may dispute the perspective for good reasons, but the rest is there and may be enough to get more money. If the long term debt is very long term, this cow may fly. What Tesla's numbers tell us is that they need fresh money - but there is still a chance that they will get it.

Otherwise your conclusion is of course correct. Over here, a company in this financial state is technically bankrupt and management must declare our couterpart to US "chapter 11".
 
#43 ·
True - but investors tend to throw money in for a good story, convincing management and a profound business perspective. You may dispute the perspective for good reasons, but the rest is there and may be enough to get more money. If the long term debt is very long term, this cow may fly.
Tesla's long term debt:
685 million $ due in 2018.
928 million $ due in 2019.
1,475 million $ due in 2021.

Most of the 685 million due in 2018 has been classified as a current liability, as Tesla hopes that the holders of the underlying notes will convert the debt into Tesla shares.
My guess on the projected conversion dates is either April 1 or December 25.:D
 
#33 ·
One needs to differentiate between "market capitalization" which is irrelevant to operations and capital raised by issuing shares from treasury which is Tesla's only source of new capital as far as I'm aware. Successfully capitalized businesses can add to working capital by issuing debt, not Tesla I should imagine.

Nuclear power generation is nowhere near as dangerous or expensive as is commonly believed. Fukushima resulted from a very poor American design, negligent I would say. The backup emergency power generators needed to cool the reactors in the event if an accident were in the basement of each power generating building instead if safely on the roof. This was done deliberately knowing the reactor buildings were on the coast, as they commonly are for access to cheap cooling water, and in an earthquake zone. California has almost identical designs which nobody has done anything about. I agree that poor engineering resulted in increased hazards sometimes due to the novelty of the technology as in Seascale and sometimes apparently deliberate negligence as in Chernobyl and Three Mile Island.

As for the idea that we have at least 30 years of oil left that is outdated information. We have more like 300 years of recoverable oil left plus natural gas plus coal. Oil reserves are higher now than ever and so is consumption. Every time some wiseacre predicts peak oil some wiser engineer finds a new recovery method.

I agree wholeheartedly that predicting the future is a mugs game which is why I stick to what we know. We know we have carbon fuel supplies available for 300 years. We do not know whether we can burn them all. Until somebody can prove that we cannot safely burn all the carbon fuels there is no logic to changing to renewable power generation or EV or even hybrid vehicles. There is no reason to change from using carbon fuels unless and until facts prove otherwise. Precisely because all past predictions made about our future have been wrong.
 
#37 ·
For anyone who's interested, this is the link to Tesla's 10K Annual Report, filed with the SEC on February 24, 2016.

http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-4CW8X0/1818424748x0xS1564590-16-13195/1318605/filing.pdf

If you are familiar with this type of document, it should not be difficult to read.
For those who can't be bothered:
The figures in my last post were taken from this document.

Some other interesting bits and pieces pulled from the document.
At present all of the activities, cars, batteries and the supercharger network, belong to the one company.
Panasonic will be a partner in the Gigafactory.
Model 3 production is expected to start late in 2017.
Pages 13 through 27 are devoted solely to explaining the risk factors associated with the business.
Tesla has no plans to pay a cash dividend "for the foreseeable future".
Tesla shares traded as high as $250 during the fourth quarter of 2015. Not bad for a share with a nominal value, (face value), of one tenth of a cent.
Any investor expecting a 1 % return on this share price will have to wait until Tesla declares a dividend of 2,500 % of nominal.
300 new supercharger stations are expected to come on line during 2016.

So pekem, how many $250 shares do you want to buy ?

The crazy thing is that Tesla is just like the old dot.com start-ups. A company that could go broke within 18 months has a market cap of 33 billion dollars.
 
#38 ·
I have just read that orders for the Model 3 have reached 276,000.

In other words, people;
who don't know what the price will be,
who have never seen the car, much less taken it for a test drive,
who have no idea of delivery date,
who don't know if the tax incentives will still be available,
have just handed over 276 million dollars in cash to a company that has a remarkably uninspiring balance sheet.

All this, in order to be able to buy a car which, according to Tesla's own filings on R & D expenses, does not yet appear to exist.

This sounds less like crowdfunding, more like lemming funding.:grin:

Interesting item, according to wiki. More than 50 % of Elon Musk's net worth is in Tesla shares.

Interesting item I forgot to mention from the 10K report.
Elon Musk borrowed substantial sums of money from banks associated with the share issue underwriters, in order to buy Tesla shares.
 
#39 ·
I have just read that orders for the Model 3 have reached 276,000.

In other words, people;
who don't know what the price will be,
who have never seen the car, much less taken it for a test drive,
who have no idea of delivery date,
who don't know if the tax incentives will still be available,
have just handed over 276 million dollars in cash to a company that has a remarkably uninspiring balance sheet.

All this, in order to be able to buy a car which, according to Tesla's own filings on R & D expenses, does not yet appear to exist.
personally? i think it's just stupid - handing over your money for something which doesn't even exist.
 
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