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Tesla will triumph in the end

  • No way, the project is doomed.

    Votes: 12 29.3%
  • Tesla products will be a success

    Votes: 29 70.7%

  • Total voters
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Discussion Starter #1 (Edited)
So, if all goes well, by the end of 2017 Tesla will be selling:

  • a $35,000 5-pax car, with a 215mile+ electric range
  • front and rear trunk (boot), and more interior space than anything close to it in size
  • 5-star safety on every test, super low CG
  • single giant screen to control everything (no mechanical switches, making the interface fully SW customizable)
  • full autopilot HW, with all safety functionality standard
  • backed up by 7,200 supercharging locations and 15,000 destination charging stations (at hotels, restaurants, etc)
  • 411 Tesla-owned (not dealers) stores for service and delivry
  • full web ordering at a single firm price
  • Sub 6-sec 0-100Km/h acceleration even in the base mode
  • AWD, 300 mi+ and sub 4-sec acceleration available as options
Given that they received 180,000 orders (back by a $1,000 deposit) in the first 24 hours, if they can pull this off, they may truly be changing the car industry. That means that Tesla just raised an additional $180,000,000 to invest in developing the product.

Watch and marvel at the Silicon Valley car company that did not exist a few years ago.

 

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TV stations are carrying launch packages today and I have to say I would buy one. And yes I know about the lack of infrastructure, really isn't a problem for me.
 

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Discussion Starter #3

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Discussion Starter #4
Lets make that 200,000 deposits in 24 hours and counting.

Tesla just got the equivalent of 2 full years of Jaguar production reserved with $1,000 deposits in the first day!!!!

And that is when US fuel prices in Q1/2016 hit a 12 year low!!!


Screen Shot 2016-04-01 at 4.32.16 PM.jpg
 

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Tesla Model 3 - Will the future arrive in 2017

Given that they received 180,000 orders
The fiscal future will certainly arrive for those who want to order now, when they discover that the $7,500 tax break from the U.S. Government has already expired.

It won't arrive for the people of Wales. Zero superchargers for the whole country, and none planned, according to the Tesla web site.
It won't arrive for me in France, as there are no superchargers in the direction I would travel, and none planned.
It won't arrive for me in Spain, as, again according to the Tesla site, there are 2 (two) supercharge stations in the whole country. The nearest is 400 km from my place.

So is the Tesla a car for use in the major urban areas only ?
 

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Just charge the thing overnight at home and you won't need a supercharger.
But I am still limited in the number of KM I can do.

Just an example in the north and north west of France.

I can drive the 501 km to my daughter's holiday home in 5 hours, with no need to stop to fill up my car.

In a Model 3, I would have to travel an additional 113 km, taking detours so that I could re-charge twice at supercharger stations.
My total journey, including the two half hour stops for charging, would take over seven and a half hours.
More than 20 % extra on the distance, and more than 50 % extra on the time.
 

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Discussion Starter #8
In a Model 3, I would have to travel an additional 113 km, taking detours so that I could re-charge twice at supercharger stations.
Or you could get the higher range versions of the Model 3, which will top 300miles/500KM range.

Or you could weigh how often you make that trip vs all the savings on time and money from a car which requires virtually no maintenance.

Or you could enjoy a car which has more storage space (boot front and back), and more performance than anything in its class.

Or, you could decide that you need to wait for further improvements in electric cars.

But the fact remains, that the Tesla sedans currently on the road are faster than any other sedan. Have more trunk/boot space than any other sedan. Can seat more people (7) than any other sedan.

Did you think 5 years ago that the fastest cars, with the most interior/passenger space, would be electric cars? Now you know they are. That is the future arriving.

The Model 3 just brings that future to more people.

Wouldn't you be embarrassed that your green party secretary could be driving a zero emissions car that out accelerates and F-type and completely destroys the diesel XFs in performance?

Would you even have guessed that this was possible 5 years ago?
 

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Discussion Starter #9
The fiscal future will certainly arrive for those who want to order now, when they discover that the $7,500 tax break from the U.S. Government has already expired.
Why do you think it will not be renewed? Governments the world over are intent on throwing money at electric car buyers. With the low information voters whipped into a frenzy by the climate alarmists, it is a god bet that even more incentives are coming.

What is more likely, that governments in Europe will turn against electric cars, or that they will turn against diesel cars, and start banning them from city centers and the like?

Ooops.
 

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A near neighbour of mine has an electric car and as I understand it the economics of owning it are amazing.
Firstly there was the £5000 government grant. Then there is the BIK rate of just 5%, a big saving on his earlier Mondeo. Add to that the saving of £8.50 per day at the local railway station car park because they generously provide free parking and electricity to electric car users. It is by the way that no road fund tax is imposed and when driven through London no congestion charge is applied.
I have benefitted personally from the free parking and electricity at a shopping mall which would ordinarily cost both petrol and, in my case £4.00 parking charge.
I am sure the above benefits are not the full scope available, in some places use of bus lanes will be available with impunity.
 

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Lets make that 200,000 deposits in 24 hours and counting.

Tesla just got the equivalent of 2 full years of Jaguar production reserved with $1,000 deposits in the first day!!!!

And that is when US fuel prices in Q1/2016 hit a 12 year low!!!


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This would be the completely refundable, no-quibble-about-giving-it-back deposit? Watch them get returned as Tesla are as late in launching the Model 3 as all previous launches.

I say this as a big fan of the way Tesla has shaken up the industry (including jaguar whose own all electric car is currently being developed) but the car is only half the deal. The other half is the infrastructure to keep it running, and if £/$/€ billions are to be spent on a completely new way of doing things, then electric cars that still need polluting processes to charge them probably isn't the optimum solution.

Unless and until a comprehensive infrastructure is in place, rechargeable electric cars are just an interim technology suitable only to urban runabouts, and private ownership probably isn't the best model for that anyway.
 

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Unless and until a comprehensive infrastructure is in place, rechargeable electric cars are just an interim technology suitable only to urban runabouts, and private ownership probably isn't the best model for that anyway

I wonder if that is correct, the infrastructure thing that is.
Check with your local council, if like mine they are partnered with Chargemaster, you may discover that it is not being used very much at all.
There is a Chargemaster pod within 600 yards of my house and the use it has had over the years it has been installed is neglible. Best of all it is free to use, both parking and electricity.
 

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Lets make that 200,000 deposits in 24 hours and counting.

Tesla just got the equivalent of 2 full years of Jaguar production reserved with $1,000 deposits in the first day!!!!

And that is when US fuel prices in Q1/2016 hit a 12 year low!!!


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Let's make that zero sales and zero production until at least a year from now. Let's make that the ultimate vapourware con in history. Paying a deposit against a possible delivery of an untested car maybe a year from now from a company that has not previously made anything close to this number of cars before is self evidently foolish.

These are also not actual paid deposits. Tesla confirms the buyer may withdraw his or her deposit if a purchase contract is submitted and the buyer declines to proceed. This is nothing more than a glorified line-up to buy tickets to a concert which is going to be cancelled. In law a refundable deposit is not a deposit. By definition a deposit is forfeit if the buyer declines to complete the purchase. Whatever these payments are called they are a nothing in law. I sure hope those buyers have some sort of deposit security because Tesla won't be here to repay those deposits.

Jeepers, a little googling reveals that the factory necessary to produce batteries cheaply enough for the Tesla 3 to be made for anything close to its retail price hasn't even been finished yet. No batteries can be produced yet, let alone cars.

Double Jeepers, Tesla's car factory can't produce this volume. So, it will take at least five years for Tesla to actually deliver the cars now ordered. Hmmmm.

Funnily enough, five years from today the apparent pause in global temperature rise is extremely likely to turn into a decline....
 

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Jeepers, a little googling reveals that the factory necessary to produce batteries cheaply enough for the Tesla 3 to be made for anything close to its retail price hasn't even been finished yet. No batteries can be produced yet, let alone cars.
The Times is reporting today that the "Giga" factory in Nevada has almost completed construction. No doubt the batteries supplied to both Toyota and Mercedes, and whoever else, are subject to some contractual arrangements.
 

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There is a Chargemaster pod within 600 yards of my house and the use it has had over the years it has been installed is neglible. Best of all it is free to use, both parking and electricity.
But, realistically, this situation can only last for so long.
At some point in time, a tipping point will be reached, which is likely to have a significant effect on the economics of the electric car.

It is fairly easy to identify different tipping points.

When whoever supports the costs of free charging can no longer afford to supply free power.
(The French have already estimated that a half hour supercharge costs 40 € in electricity. If it's free now, it won't stay that way for long).

When governments start to feel the impact of the loss of revenues from duties on petrol and diesel.
(55 % of the price of petrol in France is taxes. I read an article indicating the French government calculation. When electric cars represent 3.5 % of the total number of cars on the road, they will feel free to adapt revenue generation to cover the loss of petrol duties).

When more power stations are required to satisfy the demands of electric cars.
(Then we relaunch the debates on; fossil fuels or nuclear, where to build them, how to finance them etc).

I suspect that those who get the most benefit out of electric cars will be the ones who get in early. They may not have the advantages of evolving technology, but they will probably have a significant economic advantage.
 

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Funnily enough, five years from today the apparent pause in global temperature rise is extremely likely to turn into a decline....
I bet that didn't come from the IPCC.:D
 

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Discussion Starter #17
Typical, reactionary Jaguar forum!!!

Of course in 5 years when Jaguar launches its electric cars, which will be slower than Teslas, with worse range, everyone here will change their tunes.

Just hen 5 years ago I said AWD and SUV was needed, the reactionary drivel here went off the charts. Then suddenly with AWD on all models and F-Pace, Jaguar is super smart.

LOL

So predictable.

Tesla is challenging the automotive world in front of your eyes. Sedans who sit 7, have front and rear boot, and are faster than any other sedan in history, and faster than any Jaguar ever produced, oh, and so happens to run on electron juice. Oh and had people staying in line all night to be the first to order the Model 3.
 

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Typical, reactionary Jaguar forum!!!

Of course in 5 years when Jaguar launches its electric cars, which will be slower than Teslas, with worse range, everyone here will change their tunes.

Just hen 5 years ago I said AWD and SUV was needed, the reactionary drivel here went off the charts. Then suddenly with AWD on all models and F-Pace, Jaguar is super smart.

LOL

So predictable.

Tesla is challenging the automotive world in front of your eyes. Sedans who sit 7, have front and rear boot, and are faster than any other sedan in history, and faster than any Jaguar ever produced, oh, and so happens to run on electron juice. Oh and had people staying in line all night to be the first to order the Model 3.
I don't think anyone here is being reactionary.
I would imagine that everyone on here sees a future for electric cars, it just won't start in 2017, as the future started years ago.

I agree that Tesla appears to be challenging the automotive world, but how much of this challenge is really interesting ?
I don't need or want a sedan that can seat 7 people.
Speed for the sake of speed doesn't mean very much. Every single ICE car on the market is more than capable of exceeding the speed limits in most countries of the world, so what is the point of promoting the speed advantage of an electric car ?

Even the issue of Tesla's green credentials is still to be resolved. You must have heard about the recent case in Singapore.
 

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I bet that didn't come from the IPCC.:D
No, but the same data are in their reports.

I look at those useless graphs showing temperature changes since the last ice age. 11,000 years ago the Earth really warmed up fairly suddenly and cattle farts or infernal combustion engines were nowhere to be seen. About 8,000 years ago the Earth was warmer than it has been since then. I laugh out loud when anybody suggests that any year in the 20th or 21st centuries was a "record hot year". Nope, not even close.

The current El Nino is very likely to produce La Nina later this year, about 3 out of 7 El Nino's are immediately followed by a cool La Nina. Given the El Nino/La Nina temperature history we know of, and we only know a very short time period, it is "extremely likely" that the Earth's average global temperature (whatever that may mean) will decline over the next five years. If it isn't CO2 and it likely isn't then the global average temperature may drop fairly steeply by modern standards from about 2020 to about 2030.

If it does, and it is extremely likely that it will, then electric and hybrid cars are going to be deader n a dodo.

I find it amusing that Tesla will be hitting the very start of the dead spot in their market right on time.
 

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electric cars - all good, but can't see free charging point lasting for long - free for now as incentive, ok, but why it should be always free? as Philocd mentioned - in some countries, part of fuel price (most of it) is taxes - with electricity, all this taxes will go somewhere else, affecting everybody i assume, not only road users. unless electricity will start users cost something...
 
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